CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2021-02-20T11:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-02-20T11:00Z
CME Note: From Dr. Lan Jian: In the declining part of the fast wind stream, there seem to be two flux ropes: one during Feb 23 05UT Feb 24 03UT, and the other one from Feb 24 04UT to present.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-02-23T05:00Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 4.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-02-22T16:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 40.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 2.2

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2021-02-20T16:17Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 931 
Longitude (deg): -22
Latitude (deg): -13
Half-angular width (deg): 22

Notes: No St A imagery, Lasco only. Fil erupt from SE quadrant, resulting in partial halo bisecting the ecliptic plane, with ejecta appearing between roughly solar meridian and behind Earth in its orbit. Mod confidence at best, due to lack of triangulating St A imagery, and fact glancing blow is forecast. Arrival time probably on fast end of spectrum given recent tendency of MOSWOC Enlil to initialise on the fast side. 

Space weather advisor: Michael Lawrence

Lead Time: 50.12 hour(s)
Difference: 13.00 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2021-02-21T02:53Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement